It seems that Joe Biden is seriously considering withdrawing from his presidential campaign.

Some points to consider:

• Biden has trailed Donald Trump in polling consistently for three years.
• During that time Trump has been indicted in multiple jurisdictions; convicted of multiple felonies; been ranked among the worst, of not the absolute worst president in US history by historians; and has made clear that if elected he will focus on attacking his political opponents rather than working for the good of the American people.
• During that time, under President Biden, the US economy has strengthened (unemployment at record lows, job creation at record highs, strong GDP growth, labor participation rate climbing, record high returns on stock market indices), inflation has decreased, crime has fallen, and critical investments have been made in America’s future (Chips Act, Infrastructure Bill, Green technology support)
• Yet Biden still trails
• Polling, focus groups, interviews, and media reports have repeatedly identified Biden’s age as a serious obstacle. (Biden is 81-years-old with the mannerisms and speech patterns of someone even older)
• There is nothing to indicate that Biden can close the gap on Trump in the next three months, as he has not been able to do so during the past three years.
• The Democrats do not owe Joe Biden another run at the presidency. As president, he has overachieved by managing a remarkable economic recovery and by stabilizing America’s position in the world. He deserves our gratitude and respect for a job well done. But a place on the 2024 presidential ballot is not a thank you card.
• Many voters are less concerned with the past three years than they are with the next four. This is not a bad thing.
• Biden will never be able to assuage voters’ concerns about his age.
• He is not going to get younger, more vigorous, or become a more compelling speaker.
• If he stays in the race, every day will see reports of misstatements, near-stumbles, and other real and imagined signs of advancing age. The focus of the campaign will be Biden’s age, not his accomplishments, not Donald Trump’s loathsome character, and not the damage that Trump is promising to inflict on America during a second term.
• By shielding Biden from unscripted public appearances during the past three years, the Biden White House has lost credibility with American voters.
• For three years American voters have indicated dissatisfaction with the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch.  
• If managed competently, Biden’s withdrawal and the transition to a new Democratic nominee can give voters what they have said they wanted; reinvigorate the campaign; and shift the spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s incompetence and horrifying vision of an autocratic, heartless, and brutal administration.
• Most importantly, Biden must frame his decision as a personal sacrifice for the greater good of the nation.
• The June 27 debate has given Democrats an opportunity to wipe the slate clean and refresh their campaign.
• This opportunity is a gift. They need to recognize it as such.

July 18, 2024

image: https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/07/04/biden-debate-fallout-leaves-voters-with-more-questions-than-answers-readers-respond/

As Democrats struggle to determine the future of President Biden’s candidacy, a line from the film “Moneyball” seems oddly relevant.

In the film, a major league baseball team’s general manager – played by Brad Pitt – is conducting a meeting with his team’s player development staff. The purpose of the meeting is to identify players that their team might want to acquire.

As Pitt listens to the scouts extoll the future performance of one of the players, he finally asks the key question: “If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?”

Which is the question that I might ask people who insist that Joe Biden is the best candidate for defeating Donald Trump.

Because if President Biden is such an effective Trump-beater, why isn’t he beating Trump?

Without getting into a discussion of the reliability of polling, we have to acknowledge that Biden has been trailing Trump in virtually every poll consistently for three years.

Three years in which the twice-impeached Trump was indicted in multiple jurisdictions for attempting to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and for mishandling classified documents; was found liable for defaming a woman who was found to be truthful in her allegations of sexual assault (the judge in that case said that Trump’s actions met the common definition of rape); was fined $350 million and barred from doing business in New York due to his organization’s history of fraud; and; was convicted of numerous felonies!

Three years in which historians and scholars generally agreed that Trump was among the worst, if not the absolute worst, president in US history.

Three years in which President Biden’s administration has produced a strong economy with record job growth and near-record low unemployment; reduced inflation; funded investments in chip manufacturing, renewable energy, and infrastructure improvements; and has presided over a near-record decline in crime.

Yet Biden still trails.

I can’t explain it, but I wish someone would.

Because if Joe Biden’s effective and successful performance in office so far cannot overcome the concerns about his age – which voters have repeatedly expressed for three years – is it reasonable to think that President Biden will somehow turn the tables on Trump in the next three months?

Is Biden likely to get younger before the election?

Are voters likely to suddenly recall the chaotic dumpster-fire quality of the Trump administration?

Joe Biden has over achieved. He was elected to get Trump out of the White House, and he did so. His effective performance has been a bonus, and the benefits to America of much of his work won’t be apparent for some years.

But President Biden is 81 years old, and he has the mannerisms and speaking style of someone even older. 

He beat Trump once, and lots of people think he can do it again. I just wish he’d get on with it.

July 14, 2024

image: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-moneyball-just-great-baseball-movie-lesson-leading-monica-lane/