Well, That Kind of Thing Used to be a Problem

As American politics continues to evolve, we are seeing a shift in behaviors that are considered disqualifying for the office of the presidency.

Apparently, now it is disqualifying to:

  • Be nominated by a political party without the specific approval of the opposing party
  • Be elected to the post of Vice President of the United States
  • Be elected to the post of U.S. Senator
  • Be elected to the post of Attorney General of the largest state in the nation
  • Be elected to the post of District Attorney of a major U.S. city
  • Fail to keep W-2 forms from part-time employment 40 years ago

Alternatively, some actions that might previously have been seen as disqualifying are apparently no problem for much of the electorate:

  • Felony conviction
  • Inability to obtain a security clearance
  • Pending felony indictments in multiple jurisdictions
  • Attempted to disrupt electoral vote certification to remain in office after losing re-election attempt
  • Mismanaged pandemic response contributing significantly to deaths of thousands of Americans
  • Betrayed U.S. allies in Afghanistan and Syria (Kurds).
  • Banned from doing business in home state following investigation for widespread fraudulent practices
  • Found to have committed sexual assault in civil defamation trial
  • Failed to achieve signature campaign promises including building a wall and forcing Mexico to pay for it, replacing the Affordable Care Act, investing $550 billion in infrastructure, deporting all illegal immigrants, growing economy by 4 percent a year, Expelling China from Word Trade Organization (WTO), freezing hiring of federal workers, increasing the size of the U.S. Army, balancing the federal budget, and releasing his tax returns
  • Been ranked as the worst president in U.S. history by a panel of historians
  • Be described as “unfit to serve as president” by more than a dozen members of his administration or senior members of his party
  • Twice impeached
  • Only impeached president ever to have members of own party vote to convict
  • Be described by members of own cabinet as “an (effing) moron,” “shouldn’t be anywhere near the oval office,” “dangerous and unfit,” “a threat to democracy.”
  • Damaged nation’s credibility with allies and other nations by withdrawing from international agreements
  • Drastically reduced number of refugees allowed into the United States under humanitarian programs while doing nothing to remove illegal immigrants already here
  • Took the word of a foreign dictator over the advice and counsel of his own intelligence community
  • Was clowned by dictator of North Korea
  • Allowed Iran to resume its nuclear weapons development program
  • Saw the largest one-year increase in murder since the data has been compiled in the 1960’s during his term

There’s more I guess, but this will do for now.

October 27, 2024

image: https://statathlon.com/the-correlation-analysis-of-scored-goals-and-red-cards/

Correlation is Not Causation

As I have mentioned previously, this fall I prepared and taught a course titled “The Non-Partisan Voter’s Guide to Election Issues” for a local community college’s adult learner program.

The course was an attempt to help voters understand the background, context, and history of current issues so they could better assess what they were hearing during the campaigns.

 I worked on this course for a couple of months and did a significant amount of research using credible and reliable sources that I was either already familiar with or that I discovered in the course of my work. I fact-checked everything and I read a couple of books to refresh my memory of the Trump administration (2017-2021). (Spoiler alert, it was worse than I remembered.)

By the end, one thing stood out.

Accurate information is not that hard to find

I spent a lot of time checking multiple sources and confirming everything, but in the end, lots of organizations and people have been reporting the truth about these issues all along.

I didn’t have any secret password or a magic computer. You don’t need a special search engine or a security clearance to find out the truth about immigration, crime, election security, or inflation. You need an open mind, some basic research skills (which you can develop yourself with a little practice), some time, and an active interest in finding out the truth.

If you want to reduce your own susceptibility to disinformation there are three key things you must do:

  1. Be skeptical. Never take the word of a single source as truth.
  2. Never believe anything you see on social media.
  3. Fact-check everything you read and write.

There are a number of reliable fact-checking sites. Use them.

You can fact-check questionable statements yourself, but these sites have already done it and they explain their methodology and their sources.

There are also media bias charts, to identify the partisan leanings and accuracy of various media platforms. Simply search for ‘media bias charts’ on any search engine.

The best thing about fact-checking sites and media bias charts is that in each case there are more than one. You can compare their responses to see which seems more reliable to you.

Here are some additional suggestions from a League of Women Voters website:

How to Spot Misinformation and Disinformation

Consider the source: Who’s sharing this information? Does the URL look strange? (For example, an “.edu” domain followed by “.co” or “lo” is often a fake site.) Check the About page for verifiable information. Is there evidence of partisanship or bias

Check the date

Cross-check: Check trustworthy, reliable news sources to see if they are reporting the same information

Read past the headline: You know how tabloids post scandalous headlines and follow them with articles that are relatively mundane? Unfortunately, political outlets do that too

Question emotionally charged content: Is the person or post using emotionally manipulative language? That’s a red flag. Reliable sources let the facts influence your response, not emotional language

We should also be aware of our own biases. The way we perceive information is affected by our own experiences, expectations, and preferences. Learn about cognitive biases and how they can affect your assessment of new information. Common cognitive biases include:

  • Confirmation Bias
  • Hindsight Bias
  • Anchoring Bias
  • Misinformation Effect
  • Actor-Observer Bias
  • False Consensus Effect
  • Halo Effect
  • Self-Serving Bias
  • Availability Heuristic
  • Optimism Bias

And always keep in mind that correlation is not causation

If you just keep this in mind you will inoculate yourself against a vast array of disinformation being disseminated during this election season.

Here are some additional suggestions for navigating the internet by Isaac Saul (Tangle).

October 27, 2024

image: https://business.uq.edu.au/momentum/navigating-fake-news

Treating Voters Like Criminals

Multiple polls over the past three years have indicated that nearly one third of Americans and nearly 70 percent of Republicans believe that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

This belief persists despite the total lack of evidence for such widespread fraud. No one anywhere has produced actual evidence of fraud of any significant scale.

This shouldn’t surprise anybody, as election officials have been unanimous in their statements since the days following the 2020 election that the election was neither rigged nor corrupted.

Christopher Cox Krebs served as Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in the United States Department of Homeland Security from 2018 – 2020. He was appointed by Donald Trump.

“The 2020 election was the most secure election certainly in modern history,” Krebs said. “I have no question about the security of the systems, of the process, of the vote, of the count, [or] of the certification.”

Trump’s own Attorney General William Barr contradicted Trump’s claims of voter fraud when he told the Associated Press, “The Justice Department has found no evidence of widespread fraud in this year’s election.

The Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council (GCC) Executive Committee on Nov 12, 2020 issued a statement saying, “The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history. Right now, across the country, election officials are reviewing and double checking the entire election process prior to finalizing the result.

Trump’s team filed 62 lawsuits in various jurisdictions challenging election results, and lost 61. None of the suits provided evidence of fraud and most alleged that local procedures were improper. Trump’s lone victory came when a Pennsylvania judge ruled that voters could not go back and “cure” their ballots if they failed to provide proper identification three days after the election. The ruling affected few votes and came nowhere near changing the outcome in Pennsylvania, which Biden won by 81,660 votes.  Every other case was dismissed and eventually 14 of Trump’s attorneys were either disbarred, pled guilty to charges, were suspended from practicing law, or were indicted and charged in connection with efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, including Rudy Giuliani, Sydney Powell, Jenna Ellis, and John Eastman.

All of the states whose results Trump questioned maintained paper ballots, so scanner results were confirmed through audits. Recounts, backed by the Republican party and the Trump campaign, were conducted in counties in Wisconsin, Arizona and Texas and at a statewide level in Georgia. No recount found evidence of voter fraud.

An Associated Press analysis of the 2020 presidential election finding that of the 25.5 million votes cast in the closest states — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin — fewer than 425 ballots had been identified as suspicious despite numerous audits and recounts.

Yet, the idea that Trump – whose approval ratings never reached 50 percent during his term – won in some kind of mystical landslide persists.

While most of this is the result of cultish devotion, some might be attributed to a lack of understanding of America’s voting system.

Most people have no idea of the security measures that election boards have had in place for years. I have worked in various temporary positions for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections for more then four years as a precinct official and location manager on election days, as a member of the election night staff, as a member of the election support team helping prepare all the equipment and materials used at the county’s 285 voting locations, as a vote-by-mail official, and as a member of a signature verification team. After the election I will be a member of the team reviewing provisional ballots and this week and next I am part of the ballot collection team assisting voters at the county’s ballot drop box. So, I have had an opportunity to see most of the entire voting process.

Here are some things about election management that I didn’t know before I started working there:

  • Any task – before, after, or during election day – that involves handling, moving, or processing ballots – both voted and non-voted  – and scanners must be conducted by a two person bi-partisan team. The teams are usually comprised of a Democrat and a Republican, but Independent voters can also replace one of the major party voters.
  • The building where ballots are stored and where election results are tabulated is studded with video surveillance equipment. Unless you are in a restroom, you are never out of sight of a camera. And I am not actually sure about the restrooms…
  • Secure rooms where ballots – blank and voted – and scanners are stored are secured with two combination locks. One combination is known only to Republican manages, the other is known only to Democratic managers.
  • On election night, there are hundreds of people working at the election processing center. No one is ever alone with access to scanner memory sticks or voted ballots.
  • Pre-identified observers and members of the news media are permitted to observe all aspects of voting and vote tabulation
  • Every ballot has a barcode and we know who that ballot was issued to. Once the ballot is filled out the voter removes the stub with the barcode, hands the stub to one of two members of the bi-partisan scanner team, and inserts the voted ballot into the scanner. The scanner retains the ballot and the precinct official retains the barcode stubs. (By removing the barcode before scanning, we ensue that no one can know how a person voted.)
  • At the end of the voting period, each voting location compares the number of scanned ballots with the number of ballots issued to voters. Any discrepancies are immediately addressed.
  • Scanners are never connected to the internet. Vote totals are recorded on memory sticks which are transported to the election headquarters on election night by armed couriers.

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has detailed information about election security on their website.

America’s elections are conducted by county election boards overseen by state officials – frequently, the Secretary of State.  Any attempt at large-scale fraud would require the cooperation and participation of hundreds if not thousands of election officials in hundreds of counties.

Experts say to pull off stealing a presidential election would require large numbers of people willing to risk prosecution, prison time and fines working in concert with election officials from both parties who are willing to look the other way. And everyone somehow would keep quiet about the whole affair.

“It would be the most extensive conspiracy in the history of planet Earth,” said David Becker, a senior trial attorney in the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush who now directs the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation & Research.

Non-citizen voting is one of the latest voting concerns. But there is no evidence that non-citizens are voting in significant numbers. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, explicitly prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections. It is not legal in any state for a noncitizen to cast a ballot in a federal election.

The Heritage Foundation’s analysis of legal actions regarding election conduct found only 24 instances of noncitizens voting between 2003 and 2023

A study conducted by the Brennan Center for Justice analyzing 23.5 million votes across 42 jurisdictions in the 2016 general election concluded that there were approximately 30 instances of noncitizens casting votes

“The last thing [migrants] want to do is put themselves at risk of being detained, deported, let alone put a wrench in their application for citizenship,” said Ron Hayduk, an expert on noncitizen voting at San Francisco State University.

Of course, by now the folks that want to believe the election was stolen will continue to believe it, no matter what.

There has never been any actual evidence of widespread fraud, and every hocus-pocus bogus theory has been quickly and thoroughly debunked. (Venezuelan hackers?)

But the mythology has changed American elections, and not for the better.

When I started working elections – in those carefree pre-2020 days – we believed that our job was to ensure that every registered voter had an opportunity to vote, and every proper vote should be counted. We saw voters as our neighbors, friends, co-workers, parents of our children’s playmates, people we went to school and church with. They were Americans who were eager to perform a fundamental civic duty.

Now, we are expected treat voters as criminals. We have to assume that every voter is engaged in some nefarious attempt to destroy America.

Today I spent five hours guarding the county’s ballot drop box as a member of a six-person bi-partisan team. It is the only box we are allowed in a county with more than 800,000 registered voters.

If a voter tries to give us a ballot from a disabled neighbor, we are supposed to react like it is plutonium or something, and refuse to accept it. If they bring a family member’s ballot, we can take it if they sign a form.

This edict from the state follows voter purges, stricter voter ID requirements, limits on the number of drop boxes, and closing of voting locations across Ohio.

And worse, as a result of the unceasing drumbeat of false election claims, a growing percentage of Americans distrust our election systems.

October 21, 2024

Image by Barbara J. Perenic / Columbus Dispatch

They Know Him

Elections are a specialized type of job interview, and voters play the role of the harried Human Resources specialist.

As the election campaign nears its end, now might be a good time to review what many of Donald Trump’s former colleagues and other Republican officials think of him. While Trump’s first term earned him the dubious distinction of being named the worst president in US history by a panel of historians, those folks were obviously denizens of the deep state who can’t be trusted.

So, let’s hear what former Trump cabinet members, administration officials and members of Congress have to say about Trump.

John Bolton, Former National Security Adviser under Trump:

  • He’s fundamentally ignorant, and he really doesn’t care about the facts. He thinks international relations are about personal relations, which is a line and approach that I can tell you, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are eagerly looking forward to.”
  • Trump “can’t tell the difference between what’s true and what’s false.”
  • “Trump is unfit to be president.”
  • “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”

Marine General John F. Kelly, Former chief of staff under Trump:

  • The depths of his dishonesty is just astounding to me. The dishonesty, the transactional nature of every relationship, though it’s more pathetic than anything else. He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.”
  • In an interview Kelly confirmed that Trump called American service members “suckers” and “losers,” refused to visit their graves, and that he didn’t want to be seen with amputee veterans because “it doesn’t look good for me”
  • “He’s a very, very flawed man…who has some serious character issues.”
  • “[Trump is] A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”

Republican Robert M. Gates, former CIA director and defense secretary who served in the administrations of both George W. Bush and Barack Obama:

  • “[Trump’s] disdain for allies, fondness for authoritarian leaders, and erratic behavior undermined his credibility.”

Mike Pence, Vice-President under Trump:

  • “President Trump asked me to put him over the Constitution… I really do believe that…Anyone who asks someone else to put themselves over the Constitution should never be president of the US again.”
  • “It should come as no surprise that I will not be endorsing Donald Trump this year.”

Rex Tillerson, Former Secretary of State under Trump:

  • “An (effing) moron.”
  • “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.”

William Barr, Former Attorney General under Trump:

  • “He is a consummate narcissist. And he constantly engages in reckless conduct. … He will always put his own interests, and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interests.”
  • “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”

Marine General James Mathis, Former Secretary of Defense under Trump:

  • He’s dangerous. He’s unfit.”
  • “The president has no moral compass.”
  • “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us.”

General Mark A. Miley, Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump:

  • “A wannabe dictator.”

Mark Esper, Former Secretary of Defense under Trump:

  • “[Trump] was suggesting that…we should bring in the troops and shoot the protesters.”
  • “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
  • “I do regard him as a threat to democracy, democracy as we know it.”
  • “I’m not sure we can survive another four years of Donald Trump.”

Richard Spencer, Former Secretary of the Navy under Trump :

  • “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”

Dan Coats, Former Director of National Intelligence under Trump:

  • “He doesn’t know the difference between the truth and a lie.”

HR McMaster, Trump’s second national security adviser:

  • “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”
  • “After over a year in this job, I cannot understand Putin’s hold on Trump,”

Mike Mulvaney, Former acting Chief of Staff under Trump:

  • “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”

Deborah Birx, Former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator under Trump:

  • “With these words the leader of the United States began encouraging protestors to take back their states and ignore local public health guidance…His words also signaled an end to the sense of our ‘all being in this thing together,’ to seeing our sacrifices as a shared burden we shouldered to produce a shared benefit. Rather than uniting us around a collective cause, the president was exploiting the differences and divisions between us.”

Paul Ryan (R), Former Speaker of the House:

  • I think it really is just character at the end of the day, and the fact that if you’re willing to put yourself above the Constitution ― an oath you swear when you take federal office, whether as president or a member of Congress, you swear an oath to the Constitution ― and you’re willing to suborn it to yourself, I think that makes you unfit for office.”
  • “Character is too important to me—and the presidency is a job that requires the kind of character that he just doesn’t have…

Mitch McConnell (R), Former Senate Majority Leader:

  • “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the president and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government, which they did not like.”
  • “This was an intensifying crescendo of conspiracy theories, orchestrated by an outgoing president who seemed determined to either overturn the voters’ decision or else torch our institutions on the way out.”
  • “Former President Trump’s actions preceding the riot were a disgraceful dereliction of duty.”

Chris Christie, Former New Jersey governor and member of Trump’s 2016 transition team:

  • “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”
  • “This is a billionaire who refused to pay his lawyers with his own personal money, and instead, men and women out there who believe in him and wanted [him] to be elected president are donating money to try to forward his candidacy … and he’s diverting that money to pay his own legal fees.”

Republican Sen. Mitt Romney:

  • “I’m not going to be voting for Donald Trump…When someone has been determined by a jury to have committed sexual assault, that is not someone who I want my kids and grandkids to see as president of the United States.”
  • “His is not the temperament of a stable, thoughtful leader. His imagination must not be married to real power.”

Nikki Haley, Former ambassador to the United Nations during Trump administration:

  • He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day

Alyssa Farah Griffin, Former Special Assistant to Trump (Director of Strategic Communications):

  • “We worked with him, we knew him, and we are telling you America, this man is unfit to be president.”
  • Every living former standard bearer for the GOP, everyone who’s been on a GOP presidential ticket, with the exception of Sarah Palin, is not backing Donald Trump.”
  • “Despite publicly praising the military and claiming to be the most pro-military president, there’s a demonstrable record of Trump bashing the most decorated service members in our country, from Gen. Mattis to Kelly to Milley, to criticizing the wounded or deceased like John McCain.
  • “Donald Trump will fundamentally never understand service the way those who have actually served in uniform will, and it’s one of the countless reasons he’s unfit to be commander in chief.”

Stephanie Grisham, Former Spokesperson for Trump:

  • “Behind closed doors, Trump mocks his supporters. He calls them ‘basement dwellers… ‘  He has no empathy, no morals, and no fidelity to the truth.”
  • “He used to tell me, ‘It doesn’t matter what you say, Stephanie. Say it enough and people will believe you.”

Tom Bossert, Former Homeland Security Adviser to Trump:

  • “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”

Olivia Troye, Former Homeland Security and Counterterrorism advisor to Vice President Mike Pence:

  • “As someone who served in the Trump White House, I witnessed the destruction & chaos firsthand. A second Trump term will bring more turmoil.”

Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer:

  •   “Donald’s an idiot.”

Ty Cobb, Trump’s former White House lawyer:

  • “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”

J.D. Vance, Ohio Republican Senator and Trump VP pick:

  • “Does any dad (or future dad) want to look his daughter in the eye and explain why he voted for Trump?”
  • “One of USA’s most hated, villainous, douchey celebs.”
  • “Monster”
  • “Nemesis of the GOP”
  • “My god what an idiot.”
  • “Noxious.”
  • “Reprehensible”

(Those are all things Vance has either posted or liked on Twitter/X.)

Geoff Duncan, Former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Georgia:

  • “We have to call him out for what he is. He’s a felonious thug who walks down the street & throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists … the GOP is content watching it happen & not calling him out.”

Christine Todd Whitman, Former Republican Gov. of New Jersey:

  • “Republicans have always believed in the rule of law and the Constitution. That’s what makes this country great. Donald Trump has no respect for either of those things.

Richard Cheney, Former Vice President under George W. Bush

  • “In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.” 

Lynn Cheney, Former Republican member of Congress:

  • “Trump didn’t just negotiate with terrorists; he invited the Taliban to Camp David on the anniversary of 9/11 and had his Secretary of State sign a surrender agreement with them.”

Jim Greenwood, Former Republican Congressman from PA

  • “I observed him to be a man who is not mentally fit for the job…He’s a narcissist, and he’s a pathological liar.”

Alberto Gonzalez (R), Former United States Attorney General (2005 – 2007):

  • “Donald Trump — perhaps the most serious threat to the rule of law in a generation.”
  • “There is little evidence that he has the integrity and character to responsibly wield the power of the presidency within the limits of the law.“
  • “And no amount of rationalization to support Trump because of his policies can overcome the disqualification of this man based on his lack of integrity.”

Tim Miller, Former Spokesman for Republican National Committee:

  • “He contained not a single attribute they would want their child to emulate.”
  • “He had an empty set of virtues. Throughout his life, at every opportunity, he had screwed the people who worked with him. He had bilked the innocent victims who had signed up for his myriad scams, only to be left bankrupt. And he did it in order to fill the bottomless black hole within him that required boundless validation and indulgence for sustenance.”
  • “He was constitutionally incapable of shame or self-reflection. Even his biggest apologists admitted that the best way to get him to do the right thing was to prey on his insecurities.”

John Giles (R), Mesa Arizona Mayor:

  • “I think the time has come for us as AZ Republicans to admit the obvious…which is that our party’s nominee is not qualified for office

Michael Luttig (R), Former Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit:

  • “Because of the former president’s continued, knowingly false claims that he won the 2020 election, millions of Americans no longer have faith and confidence in our national elections, and many never will again.”

Twelve former White House lawyers from Reagan,  GHW Bush, and GW Bush administrations:

  • “We believe that returning former President Trump to office would threaten American democracy and undermine the rule of law in our country.
  • Trump “was guilty of grave wrongdoing to our Constitution, democracy, and rule of law, and who remains unfit, dangerous, and detached from reality.”

And a few comments from senior military officers who did not serve directly under Trump

Admiral William McRaven, ninth commander of the United States Special Operations Command (2011 – 2014)

• “Now, a former president has been convicted by a jury in New York, and we have a choice to make. We can show the world that we are still exceptional and continue to lead the international community with integrity and pride, or we can prolong the onslaught of crassness, vulgarity, pettiness and righteous indignation and descend into national mediocrity, where there is nothing of value worth emulating.”

General Barry McCaffery who commanded the 24th Infantry Division during Operation Desert Storm and later served as served as Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy during the Clinton administration:

  • “Trump sounds like a 12-year-pld – a willful and abusive braggart. He is remarkably ignorant and uneducated about the world that we face and the means we may use to defend ourselves. At retirement I was a four-star joint theater commander. In my considered opinion, Trump is unqualified to be the president of the United States and fulfill the role of commander in chief of the 2.2 million men and women of the armed forces.”

October 7, 2024