As I mentioned previously, this fall I put together an adult education course on election issues to help voters assess candidate positions.

I learned a lot from the experience, but the takeaway that surprised me the most was the ready availability of accurate information about election security, the economy, inflation, crime, immigration, and other issues. Lots of credible sources have been reporting accurately about these topics for years.

Social media is never a credible source, many news organizations are unreliable, and the opinion sections of many news organizations are highly partisan. But research organizations, government agencies, and many non-governmental organizations routinely provide accurate information, including current data and the history of these issues.

Here is a somewhat detailed summary of the Voter’s Guide course:

Election Security:

• No evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election has ever been presented.
• The Trump-appointed head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in the United States Department of Homeland Security said the 2020 election “…was the most secure election certainly in modern history.”
• Trump’s own Attorney General said, “The Justice Department has found no evidence of widespread fraud in the 2020 election.”
• America’s elections are conducted by thousands of County Boards of Election and are overseen by state officials. To rig a federal election would require the criminal participation of hundreds, if not thousands of officials from both parties. “It would be the most extensive conspiracy in the history of planet Earth,” said David Becker, a senior trial attorney in the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush
• No evidence of significant non-citizen voting has ever been presented.

Disinformation:

• One of the drivers of decreased confidence in the political system has been the explosion of misinformation deliberately aimed at disrupting the democratic process
• Such disinformation is disseminated by political campaigns, political commentators, bloggers, and foreign governments.
• As it turns out, though, accurate information is not that hard to find.
• You need an open mind, some basic research skills (which you can develop yourself with a little practice), some time, and an active interest in finding out the truth.
• If you want to reduce your own susceptibility to disinformation there are three key things you must do:
  • Be skeptical. Never take the word of a single source as truth.
  • Never believe anything you see on social media.
  • Fact-check everything you read and write.
• Be aware of your own potential cognitive biases (we all have them)
• Identify credible sources of information and rely on them
• Review “Media Bias charts” for information on news organizations
• Above all, remember Correlation is not Causation

The Presidency:

• Americans significantly overestimate the influence a president has on their daily lives
• People think the president is almost like a benevolent despot determining your future. But in reality, the president is more like someone sitting in the co-pilot’s seat while the plane is on autopilot. We need someone there, but mostly the thing is flying itself.
• Areas where the president has the most influence include foreign policy, military deployments, treaties, immigration, and day-to-day operations of the federal government.
• Areas where the president’s power is limited by checks and balances or by the interests of other competing power centers include the economy, the federal budget, health care, climate policy, energy policy, and judicial appointments.
• Areas where the president has little power include local law enforcement, public education, and election security.
• A president’s true power comes from his position as the acknowledged leader of the nation. The president sets the federal government’s agenda, identifies critical problems, and set priorities for government action.
• America’s greatest presidents are remembered for their character, as integrity, honesty, and strong commitment to the nation’s well-being are essential traits for dealing successfully with unexpected events that occur during every presidency.

Immigration:

• For its first 100 years, the United States facilitated immigration, welcoming foreigners to settle a vast country
• Beginning on the mid-late 1800’s immigration restrictions targeting certain racial or nationality groups were enacted
• In 1845 the anti-immigrant American party won control of the Massachusetts state government and deported around 50,000 immigrants, mostly Irish, including many American citizens
• The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1872 and the National Origins Act of 1924 targeted nationality groups for exclusion
• Today, there are approximately 49 million foreign born residents of the United States. They comprise approximately 14 percent of the U.S. population, near the nation’s historic peak reached in the early 1900’s.
• The foreign-born population as a percentage of Americans began to decline around 1920 and continued to decline until the late 1960’s when changes to U.S. immigration law reversed the decline.
• In the mid/late 1960’s the number of foreign-born residents in the U.S. was around 10 million.
• Today, around 49 million Americans are immigrants
• Approximately 25 percent (about 12 million) of the foreign-born residents of the U.S. today are unauthorized or undocumented.
• The number of unauthorized or undocumented immigrants reached an estimated 12 million around 2007, declined slightly, and has now climbed back to that level
• Undocumented immigrants (illegal immigrants) are more likely to be workers, more likely to be part of a married family with children, and are less likely to commit crimes than persons born in the United States
•  Undocumented immigrants pay taxes. Often they contribute to Social Security and Medicare through payroll taxes even though they will never be able to collect benefits. They do not qualify for most forms of government assistance.
• Authorized immigration to the US rebounded in FY 2022 after declining almost 50% in FY 2020.
• Excluding tourism and unauthorized arrivals, most people arriving in the US are temporary workers, students, or coming to be with their families
• Nearly 2.6 million people legally immigrated to the US in 2022. This exceeded the number of new entries in any year from 2018 to 2021, but just below the recent high of 2.7 million in 2016
• From 2021 through 2023, a wave of asylum seekers presenting themselves at the southern border overwhelmed the U.S. immigration system
• Asylum seekers are paroled into the United States pending the outcome of a hearing to evaluate their claim
• Historically, more than half of asylum claims are denied
• There are currently more than two million asylum seekers in the United States awaiting court dates for their asylum hearings. The current waiting time is more than three years.
• In 2023 the Biden administration began refusing entry for asylum seekers when daily numbers exceeded the number that Customs and Border Patrol officials could handle.
• The border is not open. Under President Biden, the Border Patrol has arrested more people for illegally crossing the southern border into the country than in any other period since the government started keeping count in 1960
• There are four main categories of immigrants in the U.S.
  • Legal immigrants
  • Undocumented Immigrants
  • Asylum seekers
  • Refugees
• The United States operates a number of special refugee programs to provide humanitarian relief to people who are unable to remain in their own country
• Currently, Ukrainians, Afghans, Venezuelans, Haitians, Somalis, and Sudanese are among nationalities eligible for entry into U.S. under special refugee programs.
• The Biden administration has admitted over 1 million people to the U.S. through humanitarian parole programs since 2021
• Individuals admitted under these programs are vetted and approved by the U.S. Embassy in their country before traveling to the U.S.
• They are generally admitted for two years, though they may apply to stay longer
• They are not eligible for permanent residence.
• Refugees admitted under these programs may receive government support
• Refugee admissions outside of the special programs are capped at 125,000 per year. In recent years the U.S. has admitted far fewer, including a low of 11,411 in 2019.  In 2023, the U.S. admitted 60,000 refugees. In 2024, the U.S. had admitted 68,000 refugees by the end of June.

Note: Since 2015 Donald Trump has made opposition to immigration the central theme of his presidential campaigns. No other presidential candidate has ever run such immigration-centered campaigns.

In 2015, when Donald Trump began his anti-immigration campaign, the number of illegal immigrants living and working in the U.S. had been about the same for nearly ten years. It is about the same now.  Undocumented immigrants were mostly workers, supporting local economies across the U.S. Other than political expediency, there was no particular reason to focus a presidential campaign on the issue of immigration.

Throughout his campaigns and presidency, Trump has maliciously scapegoated and demonized immigrants and during his term in office he took numerous steps to reduce the number of refugees legally accepted into the United States. At the same time, he did little to remove the millions of illegal immigrants already in the country that he falsely blamed for numerous problems. During each of his two terms, President Obama oversaw the deportation of more illegal immigrants than Donald Trump did in his term. At the same time, Trump did nothing to reform or improve the nation’s dysfunctional immigration system.

Trump’s 2024 campaign has been built on a foundation of lies about immigration. Despite Trump’s lies, it is important to know the truth: immigrants are not causing a rise in crime, they are not smuggling fentanyl into the U.S. No nation has sent mental patients and criminals to the United States. Immigrants are not bringing disease, they are not taking jobs from Americans, they are not the cause of inflation, they are not the cause of high housing costs, they are not taking all the beds in hospitals, they are not poisoning the blood of America, and they are not eating anyone’s pets. Instead, immigrants increase the supply of labor, which increases the supply of goods and services that people need; their consumption, entrepreneurship, and investment also increases the demand for labor, creating better-paying jobs for Americans elsewhere in the economy. Fundamentally, immigrants aren’t competitors. They are collaborators. Unfortunately, America’s immigration system fails to recognize this fact, leading to catastrophic consequences.

U.S. Economy

• The U.S. economy is a mixed economy, meaning that it combines elements of both capitalism and socialism. A mixed economy system protects private property rights and permits a certain level of economic liberty in capital utilization while also permitting government intervention in economic affairs to attain social objectives
• By just about every measure, the U.S. economy is in good shape. Inflation is back down, growth remains strong at 3%, unemployment is low at 4.1% with the U.S. having created almost 7 million more jobs than it had before the pandemic. The stock market is hitting all-time highs and the Federal Reserve has begun to cut interest rates.
• American workers remain the most productive in the world.
• But inflation and the resulting high prices have convinced many Americans that the economy is getting worse
• The U.S. economy is estimated at $26 trillion.
• The U.S. economy is the sum of economic decisions made each day by 330 million Americans and many millions of consumers, suppliers, and other persons in foreign nations.
• A combination of partisan media, political rhetoric, and voter’s lack of information about the economy lead many voters to believe that the president has considerable control of the U.S. economy. In fact, U.S. presidents have limited tools they they can use to make significant shifts in the U.S. economy.
• Business cycle fluctuations, natural disasters, technological changes, demographic changes, labor relations, and other uncontrollable factors determine much of the direction and strength of the U.S. economy.
• Through regulation, tax policy, the federal budget, and focused leadership, presidents can exert some influence on the U.S. economy. But results typically take years to become measurable and accurately identifying the impact of a small number of policy initiatives on an economy that responds to many thousands of variables is difficult.
• Though presidents have little ability to make large changes in the economy, they generally receive (and take) credit for good times and they are frequently blamed for difficult times.
• Donald Trump inherited a growing economy and did little to affect the ongoing economic trends.  If you examine charts of economic indicators including gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment, job creation, wages, manufacturing output, consumer confidence, and household income for the period 2010 through 2020 you will not see a noticeable change in these measures that corresponds to the change in administrations in 2017.
• COVID-19 in 2020 massively disrupted the U.S. economy.
• The U.S. has entered a period of increasing deficits in the federal budget resulting in a growing national debt.
• Total federal spending is about $7 trillion
• Sixty-six percent of federal spending is mandated by law to support various programs, including social security, Medicare, Medicaid, and some veteran’s programs
• Just 26 percent of federal spending is discretionary, and 42 percent of that is defense spending. The rest of the federal government is funded by the remaining 15 percent of federal spending.
• Defense spending is about 3% of GDP.  That’s the lowest it’s been since the data started being published around the Korean War.
• Foreign aid totals less than one percent of the federal budget
• The U.S. devotes 8 percent of all federal spending to interest payments in the debt.
• Money spent on interest payments cannot be spent on other needs

Inflation:

• Inflation has declined to the level that has historically been the nation’s inflation target
• While inflation (the change in prices) has been reduced, prices remain higher than they were several years ago and consumers remain dissatisfied
• Higher prices are unlikely to come down significantly (or we would still be paying 35 cents for a gallon of gasoline, as we did in 1970)
• Inflation from 2021 – 2023 had several main causes:
  • Persistently high federal deficits, including record deficits in 2020 and 2021
  • Trade War initiated in 2017 that reduced manufacturing production resulting in higher prices
  • In 2020 the U.S. and OPEC negotiated an agreement to reduce oil production, raising gasoline and heating oil prices
  • COVID-19 federal stimulus programs (two under President Trump, a third under President Biden)
  • Economic slowdown caused by COVID cut production, reduced trade, and disrupted supply lines. During COVID recovery, delay in return to full production and delay in rebuilding supply lines reduced supply of items while demand grew, boosting inflation
  • Worker shortages in post-COVID period led to higher wages, boosting inflation
• Inflation was a known risk when stimulus payments were being designed, but the risk was considered acceptable as the alternative was a possible economic collapse

Deficits/Debt

• Deficits are the amount the federal government spends above revenues each year
• Debt is the cumulative sum of all of the annual deficits and surpluses
• The last time the U.S. had a budget surplus was 1998-2000
• Deficits are typically helpful during periods of economic downturn
• Deficits should be reduced as much as possible during times of economic expansion
• Donald Trump was the first president in U.S. history to increase the deficit during each year of his presidency

Social Security/Medicare

• Funds collected via payroll tax are deposited into trust funds for Social Security and Medicare
• Neither program currently collects sufficient tax revenue to pay out current benefits
• Shortfalls are made up by drawing down the Trust Funds, which previously had collected more in payroll taxes from workers than was paid out to beneficiaries. Today, the programs are paying more to beneficiaries than they are collecting in payroll taxes
• Social Security Trust Fund will be depleted around 2035
• Medicare Trust Fund will be depleted in 2036
• Social Security will continue to pay benefits out of current revenues, but benefits will likely be decreased by 20 percent
• Medicare will be able to pay 89 percent of expected benefits
• Neither Congress nor any administration has “stolen” money from Social Security Trust Fund
• By law, trust fund surpluses have been invested in U.S. bonds, but those bonds are sold when trust fund monies are needed to pay benefits
• Replenishing the trust funds will require additional revenue, benefit cuts, or a combination of the two.  It should not be difficult to devise an appropriate formula, but so far Congress has lacked the political will.

Tariffs:

• Tariffs are fees paid by the importer
• Costs of tariffs are frequently passed on the customers in form of higher prices
• No foreign nation pays tariffs
• As the cost of imported products rise, domestic producers often raise prices to match
• Foreign nations frequently retaliate with tariffs of their own, reducing U.S. exports and costing U.S. jobs
• Tariffs cannot be relied on as a stable revenue source. If they succeed in reducing imports that reduction will reduce the revenue produced

Crime:

• We have lived through the largest drop in crime in U.S. history (1990-2014)
• No one knows for sure what caused the crime decline
• Crime rose sharply in 2020 but has been declining since
• The actual (root) causes of crime are complex and multi-dimensional
• Crime data is unreliable
  • An unknown percentage of crimes are unreported
  • Police data is not always reported or is misreported
• Crime is highly concentrated (people and place)
  • A very small fraction of people commit a disproportionate amount of crime
  • A very small number of places account for a disproportionate amount of crime
• The idea of a national crime rate is a myth. It implies that every person in the United States has an equal likelihood of becoming a crime victim. Intuitively we know this is not true. Everybody knows the high and low crime areas of their own community
• The federal government and the president have few tools available to influence crime rates
• Law enforcement, the courts, and other elements of the criminal justice system are entirely controlled by local governments. Federal law enforcement agencies have limited jurisdiction and federal courts handle primarily federal crimes. The Department of Justice historically provides limited oversight of local law enforcement agencies, but DOJ’s influence is limited.
• Congress may pass legislation that provides funding to local law enforcement.
• Preventive patrol is ineffective at reducing crime. Foot patrol is no better – though residents reported feeling safer.
• But targeted policing (persons, places, types of crime, victims) can be effective
• Police are not rewarded for reducing crime

November 3, 2024

image: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53558176

As American politics continues to evolve, we are seeing a shift in behaviors that are considered disqualifying for the office of the presidency.

Apparently, now it is disqualifying to:

• Be nominated by a political party without the specific approval of the opposing party
• Be elected to the post of Vice President of the United States
• Be elected to the post of U.S. Senator
• Be elected to the post of Attorney General of the largest state in the nation
• Be elected to the post of District Attorney of a major U.S. city
• Fail to keep W-2 forms from part-time employment 40 years ago

Alternatively, some actions that might previously have been seen as disqualifying are apparently no problem for much of the electorate:

• Felony conviction
• Inability to obtain a security clearance
• Pending felony indictments in multiple jurisdictions
• Attempted to disrupt electoral vote certification to remain in office after losing re-election attempt
• Mismanaged pandemic response contributing significantly to deaths of thousands of Americans
• Betrayed U.S. allies in Afghanistan and Syria (Kurds).
• Banned from doing business in home state following investigation for widespread fraudulent practices
• Found to have committed sexual assault in civil defamation trial
• Failed to achieve signature campaign promises including building a wall and forcing Mexico to pay for it, replacing the Affordable Care Act, investing $550 billion in infrastructure, deporting all illegal immigrants, growing economy by 4 percent a year, Expelling China from Word Trade Organization (WTO), freezing hiring of federal workers, increasing the size of the U.S. Army, balancing the federal budget, and releasing his tax returns
• Been ranked as the worst president in U.S. history by a panel of historians
• Be described as “unfit to serve as president” by more than a dozen members of his administration or senior members of his party
• Twice impeached
• Only impeached president ever to have members of own party vote to convict
• Be described by members of own cabinet as “an (effing) moron,” “shouldn’t be anywhere near the oval office,” “dangerous and unfit,” “a threat to democracy.”
• Damaged nation’s credibility with allies and other nations by withdrawing from international agreements
• Drastically reduced number of refugees allowed into the United States under humanitarian programs while doing nothing to remove illegal immigrants already here
• Took the word of a foreign dictator over the advice and counsel of his own intelligence community
• Was clowned by dictator of North Korea
• Allowed Iran to resume its nuclear weapons development program
• Saw the largest one-year increase in murder since the data has been compiled in the 1960’s during his term

There’s more I guess, but this will do for now.

October 27, 2024

image: https://statathlon.com/the-correlation-analysis-of-scored-goals-and-red-cards/

Multiple polls over the past three years have indicated that nearly one third of Americans and nearly 70 percent of Republicans believe that the 2020 presidential election was stolen.

This belief persists despite the total lack of evidence for such widespread fraud. No one anywhere has produced actual evidence of fraud of any significant scale.

This shouldn’t surprise anybody, as election officials have been unanimous in their statements since the days following the 2020 election that the election was neither rigged nor corrupted.

Christopher Cox Krebs served as Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in the United States Department of Homeland Security from 2018 – 2020. He was appointed by Donald Trump.

“The 2020 election was the most secure election certainly in modern history,” Krebs said. “I have no question about the security of the systems, of the process, of the vote, of the count, [or] of the certification.”

Trump’s own Attorney General William Barr contradicted Trump’s claims of voter fraud when he told the Associated Press, “The Justice Department has found no evidence of widespread fraud in this year’s election.

The Election Infrastructure Government Coordinating Council (GCC) Executive Committee on Nov 12, 2020 issued a statement saying, “The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history. Right now, across the country, election officials are reviewing and double checking the entire election process prior to finalizing the result.

Trump’s team filed 62 lawsuits in various jurisdictions challenging election results, and lost 61. None of the suits provided evidence of fraud and most alleged that local procedures were improper. Trump’s lone victory came when a Pennsylvania judge ruled that voters could not go back and “cure” their ballots if they failed to provide proper identification three days after the election. The ruling affected few votes and came nowhere near changing the outcome in Pennsylvania, which Biden won by 81,660 votes.  Every other case was dismissed and eventually 14 of Trump’s attorneys were either disbarred, pled guilty to charges, were suspended from practicing law, or were indicted and charged in connection with efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, including Rudy Giuliani, Sydney Powell, Jenna Ellis, and John Eastman.

All of the states whose results Trump questioned maintained paper ballots, so scanner results were confirmed through audits. Recounts, backed by the Republican party and the Trump campaign, were conducted in counties in Wisconsin, Arizona and Texas and at a statewide level in Georgia. No recount found evidence of voter fraud.

An Associated Press analysis of the 2020 presidential election finding that of the 25.5 million votes cast in the closest states — Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin — fewer than 425 ballots had been identified as suspicious despite numerous audits and recounts.

Yet, the idea that Trump – whose approval ratings never reached 50 percent during his term – won in some kind of mystical landslide persists.

While most of this is the result of cultish devotion, some might be attributed to a lack of understanding of America’s voting system.

Most people have no idea of the security measures that election boards have had in place for years. I have worked in various temporary positions for the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections for more then four years as a precinct official and location manager on election days, as a member of the election night staff, as a member of the election support team helping prepare all the equipment and materials used at the county’s 285 voting locations, as a vote-by-mail official, and as a member of a signature verification team. After the election I will be a member of the team reviewing provisional ballots and this week and next I am part of the ballot collection team assisting voters at the county’s ballot drop box. So, I have had an opportunity to see most of the entire voting process.

Here are some things about election management that I didn’t know before I started working there:

• Any task – before, after, or during election day – that involves handling, moving, or processing ballots – both voted and non-voted  – and scanners must be conducted by a two person bi-partisan team. The teams are usually comprised of a Democrat and a Republican, but Independent voters can also replace one of the major party voters.
• The building where ballots are stored and where election results are tabulated is studded with video surveillance equipment. Unless you are in a restroom, you are never out of sight of a camera. And I am not actually sure about the restrooms…
• Secure rooms where ballots – blank and voted – and scanners are stored are secured with two combination locks. One combination is known only to Republican manages, the other is known only to Democratic managers.
• On election night, there are hundreds of people working at the election processing center. No one is ever alone with access to scanner memory sticks or voted ballots.
• Pre-identified observers and members of the news media are permitted to observe all aspects of voting and vote tabulation
• Every ballot has a barcode and we know who that ballot was issued to. Once the ballot is filled out the voter removes the stub with the barcode, hands the stub to one of two members of the bi-partisan scanner team, and inserts the voted ballot into the scanner. The scanner retains the ballot and the precinct official retains the barcode stubs. (By removing the barcode before scanning, we ensue that no one can know how a person voted.)
• At the end of the voting period, each voting location compares the number of scanned ballots with the number of ballots issued to voters. Any discrepancies are immediately addressed.
• Scanners are never connected to the internet. Vote totals are recorded on memory sticks which are transported to the election headquarters on election night by armed couriers.

The Cuyahoga County Board of Elections has detailed information about election security on their website.

America’s elections are conducted by county election boards overseen by state officials – frequently, the Secretary of State.  Any attempt at large-scale fraud would require the cooperation and participation of hundreds if not thousands of election officials in hundreds of counties.

Experts say to pull off stealing a presidential election would require large numbers of people willing to risk prosecution, prison time and fines working in concert with election officials from both parties who are willing to look the other way. And everyone somehow would keep quiet about the whole affair.

“It would be the most extensive conspiracy in the history of planet Earth,” said David Becker, a senior trial attorney in the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush who now directs the nonprofit Center for Election Innovation & Research.

Non-citizen voting is one of the latest voting concerns. But there is no evidence that non-citizens are voting in significant numbers. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of 1996, explicitly prohibits noncitizens from voting in federal elections. It is not legal in any state for a noncitizen to cast a ballot in a federal election.

The Heritage Foundation’s analysis of legal actions regarding election conduct found only 24 instances of noncitizens voting between 2003 and 2023

A study conducted by the Brennan Center for Justice analyzing 23.5 million votes across 42 jurisdictions in the 2016 general election concluded that there were approximately 30 instances of noncitizens casting votes

“The last thing [migrants] want to do is put themselves at risk of being detained, deported, let alone put a wrench in their application for citizenship,” said Ron Hayduk, an expert on noncitizen voting at San Francisco State University.

Of course, by now the folks that want to believe the election was stolen will continue to believe it, no matter what.

There has never been any actual evidence of widespread fraud, and every hocus-pocus bogus theory has been quickly and thoroughly debunked. (Venezuelan hackers?)

But the mythology has changed American elections, and not for the better.

When I started working elections – in those carefree pre-2020 days – we believed that our job was to ensure that every registered voter had an opportunity to vote, and every proper vote should be counted. We saw voters as our neighbors, friends, co-workers, parents of our children’s playmates, people we went to school and church with. They were Americans who were eager to perform a fundamental civic duty.

Now, we are expected treat voters as criminals. We have to assume that every voter is engaged in some nefarious attempt to destroy America.

Today I spent five hours guarding the county’s ballot drop box as a member of a six-person bi-partisan team. It is the only box we are allowed in a county with more than 800,000 registered voters.

If a voter tries to give us a ballot from a disabled neighbor, we are supposed to react like it is plutonium or something, and refuse to accept it. If they bring a family member’s ballot, we can take it if they sign a form.

This edict from the state follows voter purges, stricter voter ID requirements, limits on the number of drop boxes, and closing of voting locations across Ohio.

And worse, as a result of the unceasing drumbeat of false election claims, a growing percentage of Americans distrust our election systems.

October 21, 2024

Image by Barbara J. Perenic / Columbus Dispatch

Elections are a specialized type of job interview, and voters play the role of the harried Human Resources specialist.

As the election campaign nears its end, now might be a good time to review what many of Donald Trump’s former colleagues and other Republican officials think of him. While Trump’s first term earned him the dubious distinction of being named the worst president in US history by a panel of historians, those folks were obviously denizens of the deep state who can’t be trusted.

So, let’s hear what former Trump cabinet members, administration officials and members of Congress have to say about Trump.

John Bolton, Former National Security Adviser under Trump:

• “He’s fundamentally ignorant, and he really doesn’t care about the facts. He thinks international relations are about personal relations, which is a line and approach that I can tell you, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are eagerly looking forward to.”

• Trump “can’t tell the difference between what’s true and what’s false.”

• “Trump is unfit to be president.”

• “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”

Marine General John F. Kelly, Former chief of staff under Trump:

• “The depths of his dishonesty is just astounding to me. The dishonesty, the transactional nature of every relationship, though it’s more pathetic than anything else. He is the most flawed person I have ever met in my life.”

• In an interview Kelly confirmed that Trump called American service members “suckers” and “losers,” refused to visit their graves, and that he didn’t want to be seen with amputee veterans because “it doesn’t look good for me”

• “He’s a very, very flawed man…who has some serious character issues.”

• “[Trump is] A person that has no idea what America stands for and has no idea what America is all about. A person who admires autocrats and murderous dictators. A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”

Republican Robert M. Gates, former CIA director and defense secretary who served in the administrations of both George W. Bush and Barack Obama:

• “[Trump’s] disdain for allies, fondness for authoritarian leaders, and erratic behavior undermined his credibility.”

Mike Pence, Vice-President under Trump:

• “President Trump asked me to put him over the Constitution… I really do believe that…Anyone who asks someone else to put themselves over the Constitution should never be president of the US again.”

• “It should come as no surprise that I will not be endorsing Donald Trump this year.”

Rex Tillerson, Former Secretary of State under Trump:

• “An (effing) moron.”

• “(Trump’s) understanding of global events, his understanding of global history, his understanding of US history was really limited. It’s really hard to have a conversation with someone who doesn’t even understand the concept for why we’re talking about this.”

William Barr, Former Attorney General under Trump:

• “He is a consummate narcissist. And he constantly engages in reckless conduct. … He will always put his own interests, and gratifying his own ego, ahead of everything else, including the country’s interests.”

• “Someone who engaged in that kind of bullying about a process that is fundamental to our system and to our self-government shouldn’t be anywhere near the Oval Office.”

Marine General James Mathis, Former Secretary of Defense under Trump:

• “He’s dangerous. He’s unfit.”

• “The president has no moral compass.”

• “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead, he tries to divide us.”

General Mark A. Miley, Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump:

• “A wannabe dictator.”

Mark Esper, Former Secretary of Defense under Trump:

• “[Trump] was suggesting that…we should bring in the troops and shoot the protesters.”

• “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”

• “I do regard him as a threat to democracy, democracy as we know it.”

• “I’m not sure we can survive another four years of Donald Trump.”

Richard Spencer, Former Secretary of the Navy under Trump :

• “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”

Dan Coats, Former Director of National Intelligence under Trump:

• “He doesn’t know the difference between the truth and a lie.”

HR McMaster, Trump’s second national security adviser:

• “We saw the absence of leadership, really anti-leadership, and what that can do to our country.”

• “After over a year in this job, I cannot understand Putin’s hold on Trump,”

Mike Mulvaney, Former acting Chief of Staff under Trump:

• “I quit because I think he failed at being the president when we needed him to be that.”

Deborah Birx, Former White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator under Trump:

• “With these words the leader of the United States began encouraging protestors to take back their states and ignore local public health guidance…His words also signaled an end to the sense of our ‘all being in this thing together,’ to seeing our sacrifices as a shared burden we shouldered to produce a shared benefit. Rather than uniting us around a collective cause, the president was exploiting the differences and divisions between us.”

Paul Ryan (R), Former Speaker of the House:

• “I think it really is just character at the end of the day, and the fact that if you’re willing to put yourself above the Constitution ― an oath you swear when you take federal office, whether as president or a member of Congress, you swear an oath to the Constitution ― and you’re willing to suborn it to yourself, I think that makes you unfit for office.”

• “Character is too important to me—and the presidency is a job that requires the kind of character that he just doesn’t have…

Mitch McConnell (R), Former Senate Majority Leader:

• “The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the president and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government, which they did not like.”

• “This was an intensifying crescendo of conspiracy theories, orchestrated by an outgoing president who seemed determined to either overturn the voters’ decision or else torch our institutions on the way out.”

• “Former President Trump’s actions preceding the riot were a disgraceful dereliction of duty.”

Chris Christie, Former New Jersey governor and member of Trump’s 2016 transition team:

• “Someone who I would argue now is just out for himself.”

• “This is a billionaire who refused to pay his lawyers with his own personal money, and instead, men and women out there who believe in him and wanted [him] to be elected president are donating money to try to forward his candidacy … and he’s diverting that money to pay his own legal fees.”

Republican Sen. Mitt Romney:

• “I’m not going to be voting for Donald Trump…When someone has been determined by a jury to have committed sexual assault, that is not someone who I want my kids and grandkids to see as president of the United States.”

• “His is not the temperament of a stable, thoughtful leader. His imagination must not be married to real power.”

Nikki Haley, Former ambassador to the United Nations during Trump administration:

• “He used to be good on foreign policy and now he has started to walk it back and get weak in the knees when it comes to Ukraine. A terrible thing happened on January 6 and he called it a beautiful day

Alyssa Farah Griffin, Former Special Assistant to Trump (Director of Strategic Communications):

• “We worked with him, we knew him, and we are telling you America, this man is unfit to be president.”

• “Every living former standard bearer for the GOP, everyone who’s been on a GOP presidential ticket, with the exception of Sarah Palin, is not backing Donald Trump.”

• “Despite publicly praising the military and claiming to be the most pro-military president, there’s a demonstrable record of Trump bashing the most decorated service members in our country, from Gen. Mattis to Kelly to Milley, to criticizing the wounded or deceased like John McCain.

• “Donald Trump will fundamentally never understand service the way those who have actually served in uniform will, and it’s one of the countless reasons he’s unfit to be commander in chief.”

Stephanie Grisham, Former Spokesperson for Trump:

• “Behind closed doors, Trump mocks his supporters. He calls them ‘basement dwellers… ‘  He has no empathy, no morals, and no fidelity to the truth.”

• “He used to tell me, ‘It doesn’t matter what you say, Stephanie. Say it enough and people will believe you.”

Tom Bossert, Former Homeland Security Adviser to Trump:

• “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”

Olivia Troye, Former Homeland Security and Counterterrorism advisor to Vice President Mike Pence:

• “As someone who served in the Trump White House, I witnessed the destruction & chaos firsthand. A second Trump term will bring more turmoil.”

Michael Cohen, Trump’s former personal lawyer and fixer:

•   “Donald’s an idiot.”

Ty Cobb, Trump’s former White House lawyer:

• “Trump relentlessly puts forth claims that are not true.”

J.D. Vance, Ohio Republican Senator and Trump VP pick:

• “Does any dad (or future dad) want to look his daughter in the eye and explain why he voted for Trump?”
• “One of USA’s most hated, villainous, douchey celebs.”
• “Monster”
• “Nemesis of the GOP”
• “My god what an idiot.”
• “Noxious.”
• “Reprehensible”

(Those are all things Vance has either posted or liked on Twitter/X.)

Geoff Duncan, Former Republican Lieutenant Governor of Georgia:

• “We have to call him out for what he is. He’s a felonious thug who walks down the street & throws sucker punches at people like Brian Kemp, like African American journalists … the GOP is content watching it happen & not calling him out.”

Christine Todd Whitman, Former Republican Gov. of New Jersey:

• “Republicans have always believed in the rule of law and the Constitution. That’s what makes this country great. Donald Trump has no respect for either of those things.”

Richard Cheney, Former Vice President under George W. Bush

• “In our nation’s 248-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump. He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He can never be trusted with power again.” 

Lynn Cheney, Former Republican member of Congress:

• “Trump didn’t just negotiate with terrorists; he invited the Taliban to Camp David on the anniversary of 9/11 and had his Secretary of State sign a surrender agreement with them.”

Jim Greenwood, Former Republican Congressman from PA

• “I observed him to be a man who is not mentally fit for the job…He’s a narcissist, and he’s a pathological liar.”

Alberto Gonzalez (R), Former United States Attorney General (2005 – 2007):

• “Donald Trump — perhaps the most serious threat to the rule of law in a generation.”

• “There is little evidence that he has the integrity and character to responsibly wield the power of the presidency within the limits of the law.“

• “And no amount of rationalization to support Trump because of his policies can overcome the disqualification of this man based on his lack of integrity.”

Tim Miller, Former Spokesman for Republican National Committee:

• “He contained not a single attribute they would want their child to emulate.”

• “He had an empty set of virtues. Throughout his life, at every opportunity, he had screwed the people who worked with him. He had bilked the innocent victims who had signed up for his myriad scams, only to be left bankrupt. And he did it in order to fill the bottomless black hole within him that required boundless validation and indulgence for sustenance.”

• “He was constitutionally incapable of shame or self-reflection. Even his biggest apologists admitted that the best way to get him to do the right thing was to prey on his insecurities.”

John Giles (R), Mesa Arizona Mayor:

• “I think the time has come for us as AZ Republicans to admit the obvious…which is that our party’s nominee is not qualified for office

Michael Luttig (R), Former Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit:

• “Because of the former president’s continued, knowingly false claims that he won the 2020 election, millions of Americans no longer have faith and confidence in our national elections, and many never will again.”

Twelve former White House lawyers from Reagan,  GHW Bush, and GW Bush administrations:

• “We believe that returning former President Trump to office would threaten American democracy and undermine the rule of law in our country.“

• Trump “was guilty of grave wrongdoing to our Constitution, democracy, and rule of law, and who remains unfit, dangerous, and detached from reality.”

And a few comments from senior military officers who did not serve directly under Trump

Admiral William McRaven, ninth commander of the United States Special Operations Command (2011 – 2014)

• “Now, a former president has been convicted by a jury in New York, and we have a choice to make. We can show the world that we are still exceptional and continue to lead the international community with integrity and pride, or we can prolong the onslaught of crassness, vulgarity, pettiness and righteous indignation and descend into national mediocrity, where there is nothing of value worth emulating.”

General Barry McCaffery who commanded the 24^th Infantry Division during Operation Desert Storm and later served as served as Director of the Office of National Drug Control Policy during the Clinton administration:

• “Trump sounds like a 12-year-pld – a willful and abusive braggart. He is remarkably ignorant and uneducated about the world that we face and the means we may use to defend ourselves. At retirement I was a four-star joint theater commander. In my considered opinion, Trump is unqualified to be the president of the United States and fulfill the role of commander in chief of the 2.2 million men and women of the armed forces.”

October 7, 2024

It seems that Joe Biden is seriously considering withdrawing from his presidential campaign.

Some points to consider:

• Biden has trailed Donald Trump in polling consistently for three years.
• During that time Trump has been indicted in multiple jurisdictions; convicted of multiple felonies; been ranked among the worst, of not the absolute worst president in US history by historians; and has made clear that if elected he will focus on attacking his political opponents rather than working for the good of the American people.
• During that time, under President Biden, the US economy has strengthened (unemployment at record lows, job creation at record highs, strong GDP growth, labor participation rate climbing, record high returns on stock market indices), inflation has decreased, crime has fallen, and critical investments have been made in America’s future (Chips Act, Infrastructure Bill, Green technology support)
• Yet Biden still trails
• Polling, focus groups, interviews, and media reports have repeatedly identified Biden’s age as a serious obstacle. (Biden is 81-years-old with the mannerisms and speech patterns of someone even older)
• There is nothing to indicate that Biden can close the gap on Trump in the next three months, as he has not been able to do so during the past three years.
• The Democrats do not owe Joe Biden another run at the presidency. As president, he has overachieved by managing a remarkable economic recovery and by stabilizing America’s position in the world. He deserves our gratitude and respect for a job well done. But a place on the 2024 presidential ballot is not a thank you card.
• Many voters are less concerned with the past three years than they are with the next four. This is not a bad thing.
• Biden will never be able to assuage voters’ concerns about his age.
• He is not going to get younger, more vigorous, or become a more compelling speaker.
• If he stays in the race, every day will see reports of misstatements, near-stumbles, and other real and imagined signs of advancing age. The focus of the campaign will be Biden’s age, not his accomplishments, not Donald Trump’s loathsome character, and not the damage that Trump is promising to inflict on America during a second term.
• By shielding Biden from unscripted public appearances during the past three years, the Biden White House has lost credibility with American voters.
• For three years American voters have indicated dissatisfaction with the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch.  
• If managed competently, Biden’s withdrawal and the transition to a new Democratic nominee can give voters what they have said they wanted; reinvigorate the campaign; and shift the spotlight from Biden’s age to Trump’s incompetence and horrifying vision of an autocratic, heartless, and brutal administration.
• Most importantly, Biden must frame his decision as a personal sacrifice for the greater good of the nation.
• The June 27 debate has given Democrats an opportunity to wipe the slate clean and refresh their campaign.
• This opportunity is a gift. They need to recognize it as such.

July 18, 2024

image: https://www.baltimoresun.com/2024/07/04/biden-debate-fallout-leaves-voters-with-more-questions-than-answers-readers-respond/

As Democrats struggle to determine the future of President Biden’s candidacy, a line from the film “Moneyball” seems oddly relevant.

In the film, a major league baseball team’s general manager – played by Brad Pitt – is conducting a meeting with his team’s player development staff. The purpose of the meeting is to identify players that their team might want to acquire.

As Pitt listens to the scouts extoll the future performance of one of the players, he finally asks the key question: “If he’s such a good hitter, why doesn’t he hit good?”

Which is the question that I might ask people who insist that Joe Biden is the best candidate for defeating Donald Trump.

Because if President Biden is such an effective Trump-beater, why isn’t he beating Trump?

Without getting into a discussion of the reliability of polling, we have to acknowledge that Biden has been trailing Trump in virtually every poll consistently for three years.

Three years in which the twice-impeached Trump was indicted in multiple jurisdictions for attempting to overthrow the results of the 2020 presidential election and for mishandling classified documents; was found liable for defaming a woman who was found to be truthful in her allegations of sexual assault (the judge in that case said that Trump’s actions met the common definition of rape); was fined $350 million and barred from doing business in New York due to his organization’s history of fraud; and; was convicted of numerous felonies!

Three years in which historians and scholars generally agreed that Trump was among the worst, if not the absolute worst, president in US history.

Three years in which President Biden’s administration has produced a strong economy with record job growth and near-record low unemployment; reduced inflation; funded investments in chip manufacturing, renewable energy, and infrastructure improvements; and has presided over a near-record decline in crime.

Yet Biden still trails.

I can’t explain it, but I wish someone would.

Because if Joe Biden’s effective and successful performance in office so far cannot overcome the concerns about his age – which voters have repeatedly expressed for three years – is it reasonable to think that President Biden will somehow turn the tables on Trump in the next three months?

Is Biden likely to get younger before the election?

Are voters likely to suddenly recall the chaotic dumpster-fire quality of the Trump administration?

Joe Biden has over achieved. He was elected to get Trump out of the White House, and he did so. His effective performance has been a bonus, and the benefits to America of much of his work won’t be apparent for some years.

But President Biden is 81 years old, and he has the mannerisms and speaking style of someone even older. 

He beat Trump once, and lots of people think he can do it again. I just wish he’d get on with it.

July 14, 2024

image: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-moneyball-just-great-baseball-movie-lesson-leading-monica-lane/

Recently we had to buy a new car. We were hoping to keep our old car a little longer, but, like me, it was becoming less reliable as it aged.

So, we have a new car, and it’s great, but the car-buying process is really no fun. No matter how many times you do it, it seems impossible to go through it without thinking you’ve been scammed.

The whole “negotiation” is scripted, refined, and rehearsed by the folks at the dealership. They do this every day. They have all the information they need about the car, their internal procedures, the actual value of the vehicle, and everything else, while you have none.

They might show you a number and tell you this is their actual cost or some other nonsense, but who knows where that number came from?

The bottom line is they have cars and you need one, while you have nothing that they need. The only thing you really can do is get up and go. But unless you can build a car yourself, or steal one, you’ll just end up at another dealer going through the same kabuki dance.

Of course, once you have bought a car, they will probably try to make you think that you were a tough negotiator or something and got a great deal. But its in their interest to make you think that and there is no reason to think it is actually true.

Other folks might have a different view of the car-buying experience and to them I say, ‘congratulations.’  

But the reality is, if you buy a car, you can be certain of only two things: you bought the car they wanted you to buy, and you paid the price they wanted you to pay.

May 1, 2023